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With changing economic conditions, inflation, COVID-19’s continued fallout, and escalating consolidation in the financial services space, predicting what’s to come in the new year is anything but certain. Despite the challenging environment, the consultants and analysts at SRM have identified key trends that will impact banks, credit unions, and fintechs in 2022.

Rather than scrambling to adjust as they play out throughout the year, we advise financial institutions to embrace the wave ahead and implement these trends into their 2022 planning.

Enjoy part one of two in our series on what’s in store for the year ahead.

It will be difficult for financial institutions to boost revenue in 2022 – many will need to be more innovative than ever to add customers, book loans, and bring in fees.

Interest rates should remain low next year, and competition will intensify as loan demand returns. Customers’ shifting preference for digital channels will require tech investments that will further pinch bottom lines.

Financial institutions are looking at niche businesses, acquiring loan portfolios, and creative revenue strategies to offset those pressures. Here’s a look at some tactics being employed.

This year’s Money 20/20 conference marked a notable return to large-scale in-person industry events, as thousands of professionals gathered in Las Vegas to discuss all things fintech. It’s unsurprising yet ironic that this group, finally able to meet face-to-face, focused on digital solutions enabling remote commerce.

Here’s an overview of key takeaways from four days of in-depth discussions with clients and other experts in this dynamic sector.

The global supply chain has drawn more mainstream attention over the past year than in generations – or perhaps ever. Supply chain issues have affected everything from shipping container shortages to automobile production to gaming consoles to, believe it or not, credit and debit cards.

A critical factor in most of the items previously mentioned is an ongoing shortage of silicon chips. Such chips are a building block for virtually all electronic products enjoyed by consumers worldwide.

We believe this supply risk should be on the radar of every financial institution, given the importance of keeping customers equipped with active payment cards. With effective planning, issuers can minimize the potential impact on their organizations.

Although credit unions have been acquiring banks for nearly 20 years, the banking industry has recently intensified its efforts to slow the pace of activity. The pushback is partially due to the aggregate number of credit unions buying banks – roughly 100 have taken place since 2003 – and that the purchases are, on average, becoming more significant.

A case in point is Midwest Community Bank in Freeport, Illinois, which recently became the 12^th bank to agree to be sold to a credit union this year. Overall, the credit union industry could eclipse the all-time high of 16 bank acquisitions announced in 2019.

The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), which has objected to these transactions for years (largely citing the tax-exempt status of credit unions), sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in July recommending that the federal government assess an exit fee on credit unions when they buy banks.

This proposal represents an interesting shift for the ICBA, one that we will look at more closely below.

Despite concerns about upfront costs, a growing number of community banks are preparing to implement technological upgrades, such as online loan closings and automated underwriting.

Budgeting and planning season is usually a routine time for evaluating your business priorities and associated costs. However, while some banks and credit unions have already set their 2022 budgets, others are still calculating forecasts or waiting for more data.

Too often, management teams and boards plug vendor costs into their annual budgets and forecasts without questioning whether those contracts can be improved. This is undoubtedly a more complex task than ever as we face the coming winter months and the uncertainties surrounding the lingering impact of COVID-19.

There is, however, one area that is a sure opportunity for cost savings in your budgeting cycle – vendor contracts.

Banks and credit unions tend to plug vendor costs into their budgets and forecasts without questioning whether those contracts can be improved. This is often a mistake.

The truth is, no matter what the economic conditions, it is possible to reduce vendor costs without switching vendors or impacting service levels.

Here are 5 questions to ask when it comes to vendor contracts during this critical budget season:

As discussed in a recent blog post, banks and credit unions of all sizes continue to navigate a bizarre disconnect. Awash in a steady stream of deposit inflows from both businesses and consumers, institutions are hard-pressed to generate sufficient loan demand to put these funds to profitable use.

A crucial part of the challenge stems from account acquisition capabilities not keeping pace with customers’ digital evolution. This trend was already well underway but accelerated during the pandemic. SRM’s recent white paper, How Financial Institutions Can Boost Account Growth to Move with Changing Margins, outlines an actionable methodology for leveraging data analysis and market expertise to identify and act on a consistent stream of opportunities.

Here’s a preview of some of the insights covered in the white paper.

If there were any lingering doubts about the potential impact of the buy now, pay later (BNPL) installment credit model on card economics, Square’s recently announced $29 billion acquisition of Afterpay likely put them to rest. Nonetheless, we see Apple’s plan to enter the fray with a feature built into Apple Pay as the more significant near-term concern.

Though much is still unknown, the unofficially dubbed “Apple Pay Later” could potentially be more threatening to card issuers than existing BNPL products. It could also further complicate the Apple - bank/credit union/debit issuers relationship, which could already be described as “frenemies” at best.

SRM recently released its list of 2021 midyear trends that banks and credit unions should monitor during the second half of this year. Naturally, these developments didn’t appear out of thin air – our top-performing project managers and experts make it their business to examine and spotlight those topics which carry the greatest strategic impact for payments and financial services.

In this post, SRM shines a light on some big acts we’ve long anticipated will draw attention by the millions, billions, and trillions.