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We are spending a lot of time thinking through the near- and mid-term ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic, especially impacts to the financial services industry. SRM has already shared several perspectives on this topic, including similarities/differences between today’s downturn to 2008’s financial crisis and financial institutions’ latest wake-up call concerning digital channels. Now, our lens focuses on what adapting to post-pandemic consumer banking and spending behaviors might look like. 

There is a business cartoon that has been circulating around social media – a group of employees is holding court in a conference room. The manager at the head of the table declares, “Digital transformation is years away – I don’t see our company having to change anytime soon.” Meanwhile, outside the window just behind him swings a giant wrecking ball labeled “COVID-19.”  

The term “bank” never appears, but there is no sector for which the message rings truer. While the migration of banks and credit unions to digital channels has been underway for several years, of course, the national brands have been the most aggressive, creating an online capabilities gap over most community financial institutions. Given the pandemic-prompted closing of most branches and the energetic push of customers of all stripes toward remote channels, those investments by the largest institutions seem more prescient than ever. 

It had long been predicted that the next U.S. economic downturn would be far less severe than the one triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. What wasn’t predicted, however, was the emergence of another “black swan” event like a coronavirus pandemic. Although the underlying fundamentals remain quite different, banks and credit unions everywhere should consider a few lessons learned from 2009-11 while they adapt their institution’s business model to the new norms of consumer behavior.