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By now, Americans across the country have seen makeshift signs at cash registers requiring exact change or “offering” to change coins for bills, free of charge.

A few Chick-Fil-A locations have even begun offering a free sandwich to customers who bring in $10 of coins, to replenish their cash drawers. There have also been reports of some institutions offering an extra $5 for every $100 of rolled coins.

The “national coin shortage” has become so severe, the Fed has convened a task force to identify solutions and limit the economic impact.

Card-issuing institutions of all stripes (yes, a payments pun) are in store for some interesting times. According to SRM’s findings, a disproportionate number of card branding agreements are coming up for renewal over the next 12-18 months. Why is this important? Consider the timing.  These contracts, commonly signed with MasterCard and/or Visa, tend to be long term in nature and govern a large – and growing – share of non-interest income. As SRM witnessed during economic recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, properly realigning your bank or credit union’s critical card branding contract with the market, as well as other payments agreements, can uncover hundreds of thousands in both cost savings and revenue growth. 

Being prepared for any potential downside is something bank and credit union executives take quite seriously and, since the early 2000s, have been required by regulators to maintain a pandemic crisis plan. Now all of these plans are being put to the test, especially after the announcement by the WHO that the coronavirus is officially a pandemic.

Even as the business world improves at predicting and defending against risks, Black Swans will always be a possibility. As is characterized by such an event, it’s easy in hindsight to say, “We should have seen this coming,” but the fact remains that we don’t know what we don’t know; e.g., the impacts on the stock market and disruptions to daily life brought on by COVID-19.