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The Bottom Line

It had long been predicted that the next U.S. economic downturn would be far less severe than the one triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. What wasn’t predicted, however, was the emergence of another “black swan” event like a coronavirus pandemic. Although the underlying fundamentals remain quite different, banks and credit unions everywhere should consider a few lessons learned from 2009-11 while they adapt their institution’s business model to the new norms of consumer behavior.  

Over two weeks ago, our firm offered perspective on some things banks and credit unions can do to proactively support accountholders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, we have maintained ongoing contact with our more than 1,000 clients as this situation continues to evolve. Additionally, we surveyed our industry network of clients and friends to help us understand how the virus is impacting their financial institution’s operations – and they delivered.  

Being prepared for any potential downside is something bank and credit union executives take quite seriously and, since the early 2000s, have been required by regulators to maintain a pandemic crisis plan. Now all of these plans are being put to the test, especially after the announcement by the WHO that the coronavirus is officially a pandemic.

Even as the business world improves at predicting and defending against risks, Black Swans will always be a possibility. As is characterized by such an event, it’s easy in hindsight to say, “We should have seen this coming,” but the fact remains that we don’t know what we don’t know; e.g., the impacts on the stock market and disruptions to daily life brought on by COVID-19.