The Bottom Line

My SRM colleagues in London (see parts 1, 2 and 3) and Atlanta have already written about the future of cash in the payment ecosystem, but recently, some municipalities in the United States have bucked the conventional wisdom by pushing back against the notion of cashless stores in the name of financial inclusion. A rash of new research also indicates that the long touted “death of cash” is not the imminent event often implied by industry pundits and reporters.

Here’s a quick overview of recent data and developments.

Another day, another disruption in the payments universe. Just since we released the latest SRM Academy report on the next wave of payments disruptors, real-world examples of this phenomenon have emerged on a near daily basis. At the crest of the latest wave, Apple’s much-hyped credit card has moved beyond the bleeding edge and entered full rollout mode, complete with the barrage of enticing TV commercials Apple is known for. 

We were well aware of the Apple Card’s imminent arrival when drafting the latest SRM Academy report on the next wave of payments disruption. The new credit card is an important development, but not an earth-shattering one. Stepping back from the breathless hype that accompanies any Apple product launch, this is more an incremental step in a trend that has been ongoing for some time.

Despite all the forecasts concerning a downdraft in the economic climate, the payments pie continues to grow. With GDP on the rise both in the United States and globally, the overall value of retail purchases is also trending upward. However, research from the Federal Reserve reveals a less obvious pattern: growing even faster than average ticket price is the sheer number of payment transactions.

The Pew Research Center defines Generation Z as anyone born in 1996 or later. A watershed event occurred in 2007 with the introduction of the first iPhone, which maps well to the generational differentiator about Gen Z having little experience with pre-smartphone technology.  

Sports are one of America’s greatest pastimes, and anyone spending even half an hour watching them will likely exclaim, “How did that player do that?” Indeed, with the help of science, today’s athletes are dieted and trained to have bodies “made” for their sport. Modern athletes can achieve heights not previously seen. However, science alone does not guarantee the modern athlete’s success. 

Vendors, compliance, risk – OH MY! The burden of vetting vendors and ensuring that they do not introduce unacceptable risk to the organization falls squarely on the shoulders of financial institutions.

The cost of regulatory compliance in financial services is far from stagnant. In a report by Thompson Reuters, 54% of the respondents in the United States expected increases in cost to their compliance budget. As the time and money for regulatory compliance grows, what if vendor contract management could save you money (or even make you money) instead of always being that loud “sucking sound” you hear? 

Vendor invoices in the financial services industry are complicated, with some listing over 500 line items. Further, annually auditing these invoices is a time-consuming task and, in the face of that kind of resource drain, many financial institutions tend to compare one month’s invoice to the last. If the amounts are similar, the invoice is approved. 

This may sound rather casual, but even when banks and credit unions commit the time required to manually review vendor invoices, human error compromises the value of that effort. Further, human errors made during the manual review process can become self-perpetuating, compounding over time without the institution’s knowledge.

The Federal Reserve recently released its annual report on debit card interchange fees and, to the untrained eye, the results are thoroughly unremarkable. The Fed has tracked this data annually since the Durbin Amendment took effect in late 2011, as a means of deciphering the interchange landscape.

Following a visible jolt to the trend line in 2012 reflecting Durbin’s targeted intent, the Fed’s charts have remained quite stable. Beneath the surface, however, factors like volume mix shifts, pricing differences between network providers, and newly added detail on certain transaction types reveal a wealth of information that can be used for card portfolio optimization.

Is cash dead? You could certainly reach that conclusion based on recent headlines. The story on the front lines isn’t so simple, however. NCR, a global POS and ATM service provider, recently launched its Silver One tablet-based point of sale platform, a clear counter to the success of competitors like Square and Clover, and a play for the next generation of small business retailers. Given this strategic push, you’d expect NCR to be firmly on the “cash is dead” bandwagon.

Speaking at FinTech South the day after Silver’s rollout, NCR acknowledged that while digital retail transactions are growing briskly, old-fashioned currency and coins aren’t going away anytime soon. Cash is still used in nearly one-third of all counter transactions, it reported, a ratio that varies meaningfully by geography and demographic.